Wednesday September 4 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX sells off in massive 2% down day. How much more pain for $SPY?

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In Friday’s letter, I wrote:

For Tuesday, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5628, 5606, 5578.

If we lose 5578 I would short to target 5567, 5557 and even 5545.

This is what happened. The SPX opened strong but quickly tested the 5628 level, showing signs of weakness as we dipped down towards 5606. Unfortunately, this led to a series of sell-offs that took us down to a low of 5504. We failed to hold the 5578 level, which I had indicated as a crucial support, and the market sentiment shifted. The potential for a bullish continuation faded as we lost key supports and traders were left with little choice but to react to the rapidly changing market conditions.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we have lost the range we’ve been testing for 10 sessions, where do we go from here? What key level must we reclaim to put buyers back in control? And what levels below will trigger the next big flush?

More in the trade plan below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

The overall levels were good, but my execution lacked patience. I ended up trading a quick long for a small profit as I had believed we were going to defend the 5578 must hold level and we did not. The short was the right trade here. As I had already traded a small win I did not trade short the failure of that level.

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5521 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 1/5 & all overnight action.

We have now taken out this entire range and are teetering on support established back in mid-August.

Quick volume check:

We had the highest volume in 16 sessions, confirmation of this move lower.

Tomorrow, we face another significant data point with JOLTS job openings during the trading session. This will be an important indicator for traders as we look to gauge the strength of the labor market and its implications for future monetary policy. Keep an eye on how the SPX reacts to this news, as it could further impact our trading strategy moving forward.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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