Wednesday Mar 27 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX chops then dips hard into the close. What does this mean for $SPY rally?

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What we’re reading:

In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX level of 5209.

Even better if we don’t lose 5221…

If we can defend 5221 or 5209 then we can make a push for a reclaim of 5235…

If we chop, it is probably between 5209/5221 and 5242 or so and not really making much a of a move.

This is what happened. Overnight we defended 5221 after the close and rallied all the way up to 5242 in premarket. Then, we dipped to 5227 where we tested all day and finally dipping to a failed breakdown of 5209 (low of 5203.42) before bouncing back and recovering 5215 in after hours.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we chopped and tested a bit lower but ultimately defended the 5209 level with a failed breakdown into the close, where do we head from here? What does volume say and what key levels point the way?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 1DTE 522 calls ran from a low of $75 to $97 = 29% gain.

I traded these as called out in the chat from $100 to $110 (with 50% position) then scalped from $78 to $88. But ultimately stopped out on about 30% for loss and have held 10% overnight due to the failed breakdown into the close (would have closed the remaining piece in after hours if not). Peanuts last two days but I feel the move is on its way! More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were good, we just didn’t have any move in the regular session until the sell in the final hour. The failed breakdown of critical level could be key and when we couldn’t press above 5242 in premarket it became clear we were likely rangebound. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the key 5214 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

A deeper test of the new range but then a bounce in after hours.

Quick volume check:

A bit higher volume, primarily due to the late sell and small recovery. Does it clear the decks for tomorrow to trend with volume?

Tomorrow we have a very light day in terms of reports, only crude oil inventories during the session and then a fed member speech after the market closes.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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