Wednesday Jan 3 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX continues the sell off but does bounce late day. How much more pain ahead for $SPY?

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In Friday’s letter, I wrote:

For Tuesday, we ultimately must hold the SPX key level of 4756 in order to continue higher.

If we lose 4756, I would try the short to 4736, taking most of the profit much higher.

We would then likely target 4717 which is where I would look for defense to try the long.

If we hold 4756 or dip and reclaim then we can target higher and first stop is to reclaim the 4780 that we lost today.

This is what happened. Overnight we defended 4756 (even had a failed breakdown) and ran hard, all the way up past the 4780 mentioned above and then sold off hard. Once we lost 4756 the selling really picked up. This all occurred prior to the regular session.

In the regular session, we reclaimed 4736 and ran all the way up to the 4756 level (high of 4754.33) before selling off to a low of 4722.67 (just above the key 4717 level above). Then, in the final minutes of the trading day we reclaimed 4736 setting us up nicely for tomorrow.

We even called the $470.49 low of day on SPY to the penny from the levels published Dec 29th.

Special thanks to GC/K9 for calling out the SPY to the penny levels as I typically miss when this happens because I watch SPX.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we started the year with a sell that has now been somewhat defended, where do we go from here? Which key targets and must-hold levels guide the rest of the first week?

More in the trade plan below.

The 1DTE $SPY 471 puts ran from a low of $39 to $143 = 267% gain.

Unfortunately I traded these prior to this move :(. From $108 to $120 and 11% at best sale. Unfortunately I had to take the rest at a loss which caused the entire trade to be a lower by 7%.

Because of this, I traded one more when we had support and were pushing higher.

I traded the 1DTE 474 C from $83 to $106 at best sale for 28% called out in the chat.

Then I watched the 471P’s run like I wanted late in the day when we sold back off! More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were awesome. They showed overnight support and the breaking of multiple resistances only to lose them in the hours prior to the open. Then, after breaking lower to support we bounced off hit the high of day before selling back off again. A final rally late in the day reclaimed a key level to setup tomorrow. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the 4746 key resistance level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

We punched deeper below the most recent range but defended late day.

Quick volume check:

First day of the year volume obviously higher than last week but surprised not higher. Need additional data points in this year but I see that as power for the bulls.

Tomorrow we have PMI, job data, FOMC minutes along with other fed member speeches and events.

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, we absolutely must hold the key SPX level of…

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