Wednesday August 21 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX chills out for a day. Where must we hold to prevent major retracement?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5597, 5585 & 5564.

If we don’t even retest 5597 that is extremely bullish. I would try a long on a dip & defense of 5585 or 5574.

Then we can target 5623…

If we don’t really make a move, we would most likely consolidate above 5564 and below 5623.

This is what happened. The market opened strong, never needing to retest 5597, which indicated a bullish sentiment right from the start. After a slight dip below, we defended 5585 and rallied back up to a high of 5620.51, right under the first target.

We consolidated right within the range discussed yesterday, showing how effective the levels can be in predicting market movements.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we’ve chopped and finally cooled off a bit, where do we go from here? What levels must we hold to maintain this bullish trend?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 7DTE 557 put ran from low of $206 to $347 for 68% gain.

I executed a trade on this put option after dipping below and retesting VWAP. My entry was based on us not being able to reclaim VWAP on ES due to the advance/decline line, VIX, and overall price action. This decision paid off as we saw continued downside movement. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

The levels played out great! In the morning, we didn't need to retest 5597 which was really bullish and we got the move higher. Then after dipping below and defending right at 5585 we rallied back again to 5609. We consolidated right in the range discussed yesterday. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5597 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 1/5 & all overnight action.

On the daily chart, we printed our first red candle in several sessions, suggesting some consolidation with a doji formation.

Quick volume check:

Volume remained very light throughout today's session, so I’ll be watching for any signs of reversal in the coming days.

Tomorrow, we have the FOMC meeting minutes set to be released in the afternoon. This is likely to trigger some volatility as algorithms will quickly digest the information and we should see market movements accordingly.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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