Wednesday Apr 17 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX chops in a wide range. When does relief come to $SPY?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5042 and 5104.

If we can hold 5042, or fail and reclaim then we can target higher.

First 5068. Then 5079…

This is what happened. We defended 5042 so many times. First not long after futures opened yesterday with a failed breakdown that then launched us all the way to test below the 5079 level, but then at least 5 times during the regular session.

We saw the biggest/quickest price action post Powell event where we hit a high of 5079.84 (just above 5079 level noted) after a low of 5039.83 (failed breakdown of the 5042 above).

See how well the levels work?

Now that we have tested this area above 5042 support and below 5079 (2nd target for today) to death, where do we head from here?

What levels are must hold to prevent a further free-fall and where do we need to bust through to feel good about longs?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPX 0DTE 5085 calls ran from a low of $360 to $850 = 136% gain.

I traded these after taking a loss on 2DTE SPY calls. I got duped that we were breaking out after the morning dip to 5045 and then rally to 5067+. This was a bad call and I really should have been more patient. All day (including overnight we defended 5042) - the area to go long was at the lows. Additionally, it was not a trend day - it was entirely range day in hindsight and identifying this earlier would have made the day much simpler. After taking the loss on 2DTE calls I entered the calls above from $420 to $660. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were fine. It was a decent range, but we had no follow -through. Which if you haven’t identified it’s a rangebound day it makes it hard to capitalize on the chop! The 5042 was a machine at defending and once you knew it was not a trend day it was much easier to see the highs and lows. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5054 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 10/4 & all overnight action.

A small doji (still a 44 point range). Does this precede a reversal and at least a small bounce?

Quick volume check:

Volume supports the move, only slightly lower than yesterday.

Tomorrow we have a lighter day in terms of reports. We do have a couple Fed members speaking after the close.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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