Wednesday Apr 10 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX rallies overnight, sells off hard in the morning and rallies back flat. What does CPI bring for $SPY?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5190 & 5177.

If we can hold or not even retest 5190 that is an ultra bullish scenario. If we fail 5190 but hold 5177…that would be a nice long setup.

…for an eventual breakout at 5220.

We lose 5177 then it’s short to 5166…

These are areas to watch for defense to try the long after the short…

This is what happened. Overnight, we had the ultra bullish scenario with 5190 not even needing to retest. This led to a premarket and at the open rally to 5224 - just above the 5220 breakout level above. This was a failed breakout that ultimately led us to test and fail 5190 and test 5177. The two levels listed above.

These both failed and we fell to 5160.78, just below the 5166 which failed to breakdown and we rallied back hard. First to 5194, then chop and retest 5177 for a final defense and blast up into the close at 5210.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we had another big dip that was defended, how much more can bulls take? On the eve of CPI & FOMC minutes being released, where will increased volatility take us? What new levels are must hold now and targets above to show the way?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 1DTE 519 calls ran from a low of $114 to $327 = 187% gain.

I traded these as called out in the chat from $149 to $189 for 27%. Then I was all done for the day. Unfortunately I got in at the first reclaim/defense of 5177 instead of the late day entry. That late day entry would have been the perfect blast! More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were great. We knew where we were headed in the morning and overnight as we never got down to the key level. Then when we lost it in the regular session it was clear we were selling off. Once 5177 was reclaimed on the way up we knew longs were in charge again. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5212 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 10/4 & all overnight action.

We spiked down but defended and are back in lows of the highest range.

Quick volume check:

Higher volume on a dip and rally back to end the day slight green.

Tomorrow we have an action packed day of data, releases and speeches. It all starts with CPI before market open. Then we have some fed member speeches, 10 year auction and then FOMC meeting minutes released in the afternoon.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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