Tuesday October 8 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX bears win the day. How much pain ahead for $SPY?

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In Friday’s letter, I wrote:

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5740, 5699, and 5771.

If we avoid retesting or dipping below 5740 again, that would be very bullish. If we do so, we fall right back into range where we may get a long opportunity at 5715/5707. If we fail 5699, then I would be short for a move to 5685

This is what happened. The market opened with a strong premarket defense of the 5715 level overnight, which led to a push up to 5740. However, we ultimately rejected that level and closed below the critical 5699 mark. This was a clear sign that sellers were gaining control, and the inability to reclaim 5699 into the close increased the bearish sentiment.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we once again tried the breakout and failed, now closing at the lows, where do we go from here? What key levels must we hold to avoid complete freewill? What is next major upside target?

More in the trade plan below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

The levels played out perfectly, demonstrating the importance of watching key support and resistance. Having missed the opportunity to long in the premarket off the 5715 level, I decided against shorting until we lost 5699, which we did at the end of the day after a failed attempt to reclaim it. Always trust the levels.

Now we are sitting in AH right on the key 5691 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Moving forward, today's rejection of the breakout after the premarket rise, combined with closing at the lows, suggests that we may face further downward pressure. The volume was weaker than prior sessions, indicating a lack of conviction among buyers.

Tomorrow, we have multiple FOMC members scheduled to speak before, during, and after the session, which could introduce additional volatility in the market. Keep an eye on how the market reacts to these comments and the potential impact on our key levels.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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