Tuesday March 4 2025 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX gets skittish on tariff talk after a nice rally. Is the long trade over for $SPY?

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In Friday’s letter, we wrote:

For Monday, we’re closely watching the key SPX levels of 5931, 5918, 5870, and 6015.

As long as we don’t lose 5918 and 5870 now, I’m not too concerned about additional large sell-offs. We could try the long on a dip and defense at 5931…

If we lose 5918, you could try a small short to 5904/5888, but be ready to long on a defense there or at 5870.

If we lose 5870, then it’s short through 5865, 5854, and 5843.

This is what happened. Overnight we tested the 5931 level and defended it before running to 5986. Following the open, we briefly tested 5918 (hitting a low of 5919.18) before rallying back to higher levels like 5961. We saw multiple defenses of 5931 that presented long opportunities; however, after failing to hold 5918, we experienced a late-session pullback that ultimately led to a loss of 5870 and subsequent declines through all the downside targets we had outlined.

See how well the levels work?

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Now, after a massive 2% red candle today, where do we go from here? What levels must we defend to prevent further downside, and what targets above will give us hope for a recovery? How long and ugly could a trade war be?

More in the trade plan below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how we played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels played out tremendously well as we had multiple opportunities to long off the 5931/5918 before a short opportunity at the loss of 5918 and 5870 to lows of the day at 5810. Always trust the levels.

Now we are sitting in AH right on the key 5863 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for our trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

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Trading Plan

Today was a massive 2% down day on very high volume.

For tomorrow, we have at least one FOMC member speaking during the session, along with Trump addressing Congress in the evening. We should keep an eye on these events as they could introduce further volatility to the market.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, we’re closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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