Tuesday Mar 5 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX chops around to fresh ATH then sells off into the close. How much more filling out before $SPY next move?

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What we’re reading:

In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5109 and 5082.

If we can hold one or both of these levels or not even retest, we will go higher.

We need to reclaim and hold the 5131 which is the gateway to 5150…

After the strong move and breakout, likely we are back in setup mode before the next move. Which means rangebound chop for at least a session or two. This means we likely fill out the 5109 to 5150 range before deciding to break up or down.

This is what happened. Sunday and overnight we did not even need to retest 5109. We actually held 5131 for the most part until just briefly before the open. At the open we had a dip to level below and then rallied (choppy) throughout the day to a high of 5149.67, right at the 5150 level noted above. Then we sold off into the close.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we are filling out this new range and testing above and below, how much more work is required before the next move? What key targets above and must hold levels point the way?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPX 0DTE 5150 calls ran from a low of $25 to $400 = 1500% gain.

I traded these called out in the chat from $35 to $180 for 414%. This was after trading 4DTE calls also called out in the chat. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were great. When we didn’t even need to get down to the must hold and we held the ‘need to reclaim’ we had our direction set. Just get a good entry and hold on. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the key 5123 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

We tested the ‘waters’ just a bit north for new all time highs and then sold back off into the close.

Quick volume check:

Lower non-breakout volume on a chop day.

Tomorrow we have some data in the AM including PMI and Fed Member speeches in the afternoon.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

Monday we have a very light day in terms of reports and scheduled events.

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX level of…

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