Tuesday Mar 19 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX blasts up in overnight futures then retreats in regular session. Can $SPY make a move before FOMC?

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What we’re reading:

In Friday’s letter, I wrote:

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX level of 5111.

If we can hold or not even retest again (we failed the breakdown on Friday). Then we can continue filling out the flag and push higher reclaiming 5131 as a first step.

5163 is target 1. 5180 as target 2.

This is what happened. We didn’t need to retest 5111 in futures Sunday or overnight and we rallied hard into the open to a high of 5175.6, less than 5 points shy of 2nd target before chopping and selling the rest of the day.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we defended the lows of this new range, bounced up to 2nd target and sold off, where do we head from here? What levels are now must hold below and targets above that indicate our next move? Plus, will we need to wait for FOMC before this takes place?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 0DTE 515 calls ran from a low of $25 to $47 = 88% gain.

I traded these called out in the chat from $34 to $48 and $30 to $44. This was after LOSING on 1DTE calls. A small win on a bounce made me feel a bit better but today was one for the red column. Should have stayed away! More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were fine. It was a story of completing the big move overnight and then selling off in the regular session. I longed a dip where I thought we could get continuation and it didn’t work out. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the key 5150 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

We punched up after defending the lows of this new range and then sold off a bit in the regular session, still firmly ahead of Friday’s close.

Quick volume check:

Super low volume on Monday as everyone likely awaits FOMC!

Tomorrow is fairly quiet on scheduled data and news. All eyes on Wednesday as we have FOMC which will drive the narrative prior and after.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX level of…

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