Tuesday June 4 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX dips and defends again. Is $SPY running out of steam?

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In Friday’s letter, I wrote:

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5274 and 5245.

We obviously had a massive blast into the close. The most bullish scenario would be that 5286/5274 doesn’t even retest now. If it does, I would be very patient to wait to see if it can reclaim.

If we lose 5245, I want to be short…

Well I would say the plan really didn’t work out today quite right. We really chopped in a massive range today. First, we held the 5280/5286 level in futures Sunday & overnight and kept testing the strong resistance at 5298.

Then after the open, we fell down and lost 5274 and couldn’t reclaim.

Then we dropped all the way down to 5234 below the 5245 level and rallied back hard all the way to 5283 by the close. Ending the day virtually flat.

Now that we had a massive range day but really didn’t move, where do we head from here? What are the targets above and must hold levels now and what role does volume play?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 1DTE 522 puts ran from a low of $42 to $67 = 60% gain.

This was after a massive run from $11 to $163 for 1,382%.

Unfortunately, I entered these the first time around at almost the worst possible time. It was when it looked like 5245 had failed. I didn’t want to short until we got down there so I patiently watched us drop and not participating until we dropped low enough and then entered. We rallied back hard and fast. So I took a 39% loss on those. Then I waited and reentered in the low $50’s for a run to $66. This wasn’t much as we kept rallying higher but at least it helped ease the pain a bit. My lean was that we could defend there, and it would have been a great long entry. Sometimes that happens! More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were great. I just had entered a few minutes before I should have. We dipped below and reclaimed the must hold level and that was the basis for a massive rally for the remainder of the day. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the 5283 key support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 1/5 & all overnight action.

A decent range to dip down, defend and then close near highs again.

Quick volume check:

Decent volume but nothing like Friday. I think if we get a breakout higher on greater volume than today it likely means we are done with this range.

Tomorrow we have jobs numbers and that should determine the mood for the remainder of the day.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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