Tuesday Jan 30 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX breaks out. How much further could $SPY run and will we need to backtest first?

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What we’re reading:

In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow…If we defend 4873 or not even retest we can make the push to 4894 which we must reclaim. Then we can target 4904 for the breakout again for a push to 4922.

This is what happened. At the open of futures Sunday, we defended right off the 4873 SPX level. We then reclaimed 4890 and chopped within a 10 point range for the overnight hours and most of the regular session. Then we made the push to first target 4904 and through 4922 second target to a high of 4929.31.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we’ve started our big move out of tight consolidation, how much further can we run and will we need to retest the breakout?

More in the trade plan below.

The 0DTE $SPX 4925 calls ran from a low of $5 to $700 = 13,900% gain.

I traded these from $280 to $600 for 114% gains. This was sort of called out in the chat. I was not able to type as soon as I entered but within a min or so. There was still time to enter at $300 if you got the message. I decided to enter on a pullback pretty quick as I did not want to chase and the opportunity presented so I took it. Otherwise I almost didn’t trade today! More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were amazing. We defended where we needed to overnight and out of the support/resistance chop we finally rallied late day to breakout past 1st and 2nd targets. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the 4922 key support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

We broke out!

Quick volume check:

Even lower volume today. To be fair, the volume really didn’t pick up until the late day breakout. However, this is something to watch tomorrow because if it doesn’t pick up in a big way it puts the breakout at risk.

Tomorrow we have several reports including JOLTS and consumer confidence but the big one is FOMC on Wednesday.

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I will be watching the key SPX level of…

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