Tuesday Feb 6 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX dips and reclaims must hold level. Is $SPY ready again for new all time highs?

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What we’re reading:

In Friday’s letter, I wrote:

For Monday, I will be watching the key SPX level of 4936.

If we don’t retest this, dip below and reclaim or defend directly I believe we can keep the move up alive. This would be extremely bullish without further retest.

If we lose 4936, then I would consider the short.

I don’t really like countering the macro trend but we may get a move to 4910 which I would consider the long on defense.

This is where we we went in the AM. We couldn’t hold the 4936 level above, dipped to 4918 (not quite to 4910) and then recovered all the way back to 4956.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we survived the failed breakdown and recovered the key level, what is the next must hold level to keep trend up alive? What are next targets above that will tell us we’re on the right track?

More in the trade plan below.

ES Futures ran from a low of 4937.75 to 4977.50. At $50 per point that is a potential profit of $1,987 per contract traded.

I traded these contracts multiple times as called out in the chat. I tried to long a couple times and was able to take partial profits and also get stopped out as levels were breaking in the AM. I did catch from 4949 to 4972 which was the best long I had today. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were great. Once we lost the must-hold level, it was clear on direction but I was already working a trade! Instead I waited for the dust to settle and entered long. Once we reclaimed we knew we had more upside. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the 4938 key support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

We put in the dip but a higher low and a lower high today. Now that we reclaimed the must-hold level, what is next in store as we continue filling out this range?

Quick volume check:

Definitely doesn’t look like distribution to me! Even though we had a decent dip and bought it back up we did not have a huge spike in volume with major participants selling.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

Tomorrow we have a pretty light day in terms of data & scheduled events.

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I will be watching the key SPX level of…

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