Tuesday Feb 27 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX sells off and loses key level. How much more cooldown for $SPY?

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What we’re reading:

In Friday’s letter, I wrote:

For Monday, I am closely watching the critical SPX level of 5073.

If we hold, dip below and quickly reclaim or not even retest we can continue the path higher targeting 5091 first…

If we lose 5073 by 5+ points I will look at the short for a path down the levels.

This is what happened. We really had both of these occur. First, in Sunday futures and overnight we defended the 5073 and rallied to first target of 5091, opening at a high of 5097. Then, it was all chop and selling as we grinded our way down to 5080, defending and then 5073, bouncing and finally losing 5073 into the close.

See how well the levels work?

After chopping much of the day and the sell trigger not occurring until the close, where do we head from here?

More in the trade plan below.

I had a single losing trade today that I closed out right into the end of the session. They were 11DTE 510 calls. Then, I opened 1DTE puts to hold overnight. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were great. It was just that we had the nice move up above target 1 overnight and in regular session it was trend down chop. Until we lost 5073 risk/reward favored longs in my opinion. We will see if we get continuation tomorrow or we bounce out of this. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the key 5064 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

We rejected and got the lower high and lower low from Friday.

Quick volume check:

Low Monday sell volume. We’ll see what tomorrow brings but this leads me to believe we are nearing the end of cool-down and could defend this.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

Tomorrow we have data pre & post open including consumer confidence and Fed Member speech.

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX level of…

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