Tuesday Feb 20 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX defends and fills out range further. But was critical $SPY support lost late in session?

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What we’re reading:

In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am watching the key SPX level of 5006.

If we retest here and defend or have a failed breakdown and bounce 5 points that is a long entry just as it was today with 4998.

If we don’t get down that low, longing 5016, 5011 perfectly acceptable.

Then we can target 5055…

If we chop on options expiration Friday, it probably is between 5006 and 5042 or so.

This is what happened. Overnight, we did not need to retest 5006 and defended the 5024 SPX level. Then we rallied all the way up above 5042 (the chop zone level listed above) and then sold off on the pre-market PPI data. After a short-lived defense we had more selling after the open which brought us all the way down to a failed breakdown of 5006, the key level listed above.

This resulted in a beautiful long entry and we rallied all the way back to a high of 5038.7 before selling into the close.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we’ve filled out this range some more, what does Tuesday and next week hold? What levels keep the trend up alive and what levels should we short?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 7DTE 502 calls ran from a low of $209 to $365 = 75% gain.

I traded these called out in the chat from entries at $280 and $230 and exits at $280, $317 and stop for profit $350. My first entry was not the best, I stated I was entering earlier than I should - I wasn’t convinced we would revisit those levels and because it was longer dated the entry does not have to be as precise. We ended up retesting those levels and more and on the failed breakdown I added because of the significance of that level and it was not a full position until that add. I also tried a late day call after a dip but this was a low risk, high reward play that risked a small piece of today’s profits. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were great. We had the failed breakdown of key level noted above and defended. This led to a rally for most of the day. Late in the session we sold off and was right back down at the lows. Continuing to fill out this range for the next move. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the key 5002 resistance level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

A down day, but still a higher high and higher low from prior.

Quick volume check:

Slightly higher than last two sessions but not distribution level volume.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

Tuesday is very quiet in terms of data releases or scheduled events.

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For Tuesday, I am closely watching the key SPX level of…

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