Tuesday Feb 13 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX rallies then gives it all back in the afternoon. Is $SPY exhausted just in time for CPI?

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What we’re reading:

In Friday’s letter, I wrote:

For Monday, I will be watching the key SPX level of 4996.

If we don’t retest it, great, we could try longing off any of the levels above…

If we don’t fail 4996 we can make the push through to target 5044.

This is what happened. Sunday futures and overnight we were flat as a pancake! Even after the open we remained flat for a time. I was beginning to think we wouldn’t get a move!

Then, move we did as we blasted up all the way through 5044 first target mentioned above to a high of 5048.39, just pennies below the next level above.

See how well the levels work?

After hitting the target we sold off and closed the day basically flat.

Now that we pushed higher and rejected, how much more does this rally have? What will CPI bring?

More in the trade plan below.

/ES ran from a low of $5039.5 to $5066.5. That 27 point move at $50 per point would equal a profit of $1,350 per contract.

I missed this move up. When it started it happened fast and I didn’t want to chase. Instead I waited until we lost the entirety of this move and more, defended 5016 on SPX & tried the long. Caught from 5038.3 (avg in) to 5041. This was not much but it was a single profitable trade on a day when it wasn’t the easiest. We did move a bit higher but with the stops you are never going to catch all of it.

I would rather not trade than lose. Would rather have one small profitable trade than lose. I was willing to do either. The opportunity presented itself in the final hour of the regular session so I took it. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were fine. We literally blasted up to first target after not moving all Sunday and overnight. Once we got up there we rejected and gave it all back. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the key 5016 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

We got the higher high and higher low, but we closed red. All eyes on CPI!

Quick volume check:

Stronger Monday volume - don’t see distribution. Everyone awaiting CPI.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

CPI is the big and only one that matters tomorrow. Results an hour before open of regular session.

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I have provided additional levels (more than usual) below as it is CPI day and expect the higher volatility. I am watching the key SPX level of…

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