Tuesday Apr 30 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX continues the press higher. What can $SPY do before FOMC?

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In Friday’s letter, I wrote:

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5063 & 5100.

If we don’t even retest 5063 that is ultra bullish. We can breakout above 5100 and target 5112, 5124 where there is stronger resistance…

We could look for longs at 5089, 5079 if we get down there or just long the breakout above 5100.

This is what happened. We never got down to retest 5063 in Sunday futures and were already pressing the 5112 first target before the open. Then we jumped to 5123.49 high of day at the open (just shy of the 5124 second target above) and then chopped in a 15 point range for most of the day before a failed breakdown off the 5089 level which was a long entry to bounce all the way up to 5116 for the close.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we had the continuation of last week’s move and a dip & defense today, where do we head prior to market moving events (including FOMC) later this week?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 2DTE 511 calls ran from a low of $112 to $218 = 95% gain.

Before that late day move in these contracts I traded from $186 to $226 as called out in the chat (above). It was so choppy and rangebound I didn’t want to trade shorter dated but now that I see the moves we had both on the short and long side later in the day I wish I had caught one of those with 1DTE or even 0DTE after I was done trading. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were great. It was just chop though and watching paint dry. The failed breakdown end of day was a great chance to get long or trade the move down short if you were ready for it! Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5114 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 10/4 & all overnight action.

A higher high and higher low.

Quick volume check:

Low Monday volume looks like we’re waiting on data later this week.

Wednesday we have FOMC, tomorrow we have employment data and consumer confidence.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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