Tuesday Apr 23 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX rallies hard and gives back some end of day. Is this just a relief rally for $SPY or something more?

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In Friday’s letter, I wrote:

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 4944 and 4970.

If we dip below 4944 and reclaim, I would try the long. I also would try the long on a fully accepted reclaim of 4970.

Then we can target 4985 first.

5004 second, 5016 third and ultimately targeting 5051 with runners.

This is what happened. Overnight and in Sunday futures we did not need to retest 4970 and rallied all the way up to the 4997 level. After the open, we dipped hard and tested the 4970 level (low of day 4969.40) that hadn’t been tested all Sunday or overnight. We pivoted off of that (this was the long entry) and rallied all the way up to 5038.84, just shy of the 5040 level, not quite getting the last 10+ points to target 5051 (yet).

See how well the levels work?

Now that we’ve bounced back, is this a relief rally or something more? What levels are must hold now and what are next targets above that would confirm this as a larger pivot?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 4DTE 503 calls ran from a low of $118 to $339 = 187% gain.

Unfortunately they took this trip without me. I got sidetracked in the morning and missed the solid confirmed entry too long. I ended up trading these after we hit the high of day and entered initially at $280. I had an opportunity to take some off for slight profit but as they were 4DTE I wanted more for my first exit. Then we continued to sell. I was able to enter some lower and scalp to exit for a $30 per contract gain, but I am still holding some overnight currently at a loss. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were incredible. Honestly, if I hadn’t been so sidetracked I would have seen the confirmed defense and move off 70 and the significance of it. We rallied hard from there. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5008 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 10/4 & all overnight action.

Finally, a higher high and higher low.

Quick volume check:

Lower volume than any of the sell days, even the lowest one. Not surprising for the first day to turn but will want to see much higher volume on a trend up day to feel like the selling is at least temporarily over.

Tomorrow we have PMI and new home sales in the morning during the regular session.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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