Tuesday Apr 16 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX continues the sell off. Where must we hold now on $SPY?

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In Friday’s letter, I wrote:

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5104 and 5140.

If we can reclaim or defend these levels and rally through 5130 to 5140, then I would want to long (or already be long from prior levels).

First 5156. If we can break through there we can target 5172.

If 5130 fails to breakout though could be a nice short entry.

Ultimately I would want to short failure of the 5104 level if we cannot defend. That would first bring us down to 5087…

If we cannot defend we could fall through 5070 to 5051.

This is what happened. In Sunday futures and overnight we reclaimed 5140 level and rallied prior to the open to a test the 5172. Then, we fell hard roughly 35 minutes into the regular session.

We first tested 5140 and failed. Then we tried to reclaim 5140 and failed. Then it was all downhill from there.

We lost 5104 and much more falling through 5087 and 5070 all the way to a low of 5052, just a hair above the 5051 level noted above.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we’ve significantly continued the sell off and are at levels not seen since early March. Where do we head from here? How much more pain could be ahead and what are the must hold levels to turn it around?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPX 0DTE 5035 puts ran from a low of $10 to $434 = 4,240% gain.

I traded these after having a slight profit (scratch) of a long trade earlier in the session. I entered at $200 and sold at $370 for 85%. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were fantastic. After claiming 5140 in premarket we rallied hard. Then, when we lost 5140 (and more) in the regular session we knew we had a lot more red ahead. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5057 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 10/4 & all overnight action.

A lower low and lower high and a massive range again. We are now over 200 points lower than the all time high.

Quick volume check:

Stronger volume supports this move down.

Tomorrow we have some housing data and 3 Fed Member’s speaking during trading session. The big one, though, is Powell in the afternoon. This has the potential to move the market significantly and could even reverse the trend from earlier in the session.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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