Thursday September 12 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX sells off hard before whipsaw 1% gain. Full V+ recovery. Are $SPY bulls out of the woods?

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You’ve heard it before… “Don’t beat around the bush”.

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5468, 5434, and 5497.

It’s really bullish if we don’t lose 5468. One could long a dip and defense at 5456 or 5444. As long as we don’t lose 5434 now, we can continue pushing higher, up through 5497, to 5529, 5546, even 5561-especially on CPI day if there's volume.

If we lose the 5434 level, I want to be short for the move to 5421, 5404…

This is what happened. One of the rare days we get both moves. The market opened with a significant drop, testing just above the 5404 target, which was a critical level I mentioned. We were able to defend here and subsequently rallied hard after reclaiming 5434. The rally pushed us all the way to a high of 5560.41, right at the 5561 target provided - demonstrating the bullish momentum we had anticipated.

See how well the levels work?

The trade plan unfolded effectively, and as noted, I traded the short on the loss of 5434, which yielded good results, and I exited with profits on my runners. However, I do wish I had taken advantage of the long opportunity instead! More details in the trade recap below.

Now what, are bulls out of the woods? Do we face any more pain before continuation higher?

More in the trade plan below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

On the overall levels, they played out very well. We tested the key levels below and managed to defend them, particularly after reclaiming 5434, which set us up for a strong rally. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5547 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

In terms of volume, we saw very strong activity on the daily chart, almost matching the volume seen during Friday's drop. We achieved a nice 1% recovery, reinforcing the defense of lower levels.

Looking ahead, tomorrow we have PPI data set to release before the market opens, along with unemployment figures. Additionally, there’s a 30-year auction scheduled for the afternoon. It will be crucial to monitor how these reports impact the market's direction and whether we can maintain the bullish momentum we’ve seen.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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