Thursday October 3 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX dips, defends and chops. Are $SPY sellers really done?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

I would short if we fail at 5680 directly…

On a pop to 5707 and 5719 that fizzles out, I also may try the short…

If we don’t really make a move and chop, it is likely above 5680 and below 5719 or so.

This is what happened. The market opened and immediately tested the 5680 level, which after looking like it was going to be lost after a couple minutes, was defended aggressively, leading to a bounce. This resulted in a strong move all the way up to a high of 5719.63, right at the key resistance target of 5719.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we’ve chopped again, dipped and defended, where do we go from here? Are we set to continue the macro rally, or are we at risk of rolling over? What levels should we keep an eye on?

More in the trade plan below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

The levels played out after the defense at 5680 we rallied back up and a long at 5691 or above led to a rally all the way to 5719.63, right at the 5719 key resistance target. Always trust the levels.

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5717 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

The printed candle yesterday was barely green following the defense of the lows, but volume was significantly weaker than in prior sessions, indicating a potential rollover.

Tomorrow, we have key economic data releases including unemployment data and PMI, along with at least two FOMC members scheduled to speak during the session. Market participants should remain alert to any potential volatility stemming from these events.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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