Thursday May 9 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX chops around. How much more chop for $SPY before a move?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5155 & 5187.

If we don’t retest 5155 that is very bullish and we can look for long entries. This may be on a dip and reclaim of 5187. If we don’t even retest 5187 and start running levels higher this is even more bullish.

If we chop it is likely above 5155 and below 5204 in this wide 50 point range.

This is what happened. Futures overnight held the 5181 SPX level until about 3 hours prior to the regular session. Then we dropped hard falling all the way and defending precisely on the 5162 SPX level. Then we rallied all the way up to 5187 (high of day 5191.95) and then chopped closing at 5187.67 - precisely on the 5187 level above.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we’ve continued the tight range chop, where do we need to hold to keep the move higher alive? What targets above will confirm direction?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 2DTE 517.5C ran from a low of $138 to $192 per contract = 39% gain.

I traded these from 176 to 183. Just pitiful. Waited through the dip since they were 2DTE and was able to sell for very minimal profit rather than take a loss. There was more of a bump end of day but at that point my patience was thin and didn’t wait. Could have just not traded but never know when we’re going to get the big move and the signs pointed up if we were going to get one. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were fine. We defended levels below and never tested the most important ones, so the lean was higher but it ended up being rangebound chop. Difficult to trade a tight range. Trouble is, you never know when it’s going to move and move fast. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5183 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 10/4 & all overnight action.

Lower low, lower high, tight chop day.

Quick volume check:

LOW VOLUME CHOP

Tomorrow we have unemployment data, 30 year bond auction and an FOMC member speech during the regular session.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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