Thursday Mar 21 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX breaks out on FOMC. How much further can $SPY run?

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What we’re reading:

In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5150 and 5121.

We will want to hold one or both on any quick dips below on a reaction from FOMC in order to keep the move up alive.

I would long both especially if we dip slightly below and reclaim OR defend direct.

Then we can target 5190 for the breakout.

2nd target 5209, then 5219 and 5229 as a final 4th target but we could stretch further on FOMC.

This is what happened. We didn’t even need to retest the 5150 overnight or on FOMC release and instead defended at 5178 post release and rallied all the way through targets 1-3 and hitting the 4th target of 5229 in after hours.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we’ve broken out to fresh all time highs and a new range, where do we go from here? Does unemployment and PMI data tomorrow put the breakout at risk? What does volume say, and what are the must hold levels now?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 0DTE 516 calls ran from a low of $143 to $514 = 260% gain.

I traded these called out in the chat from $166 to $227 for 37%. Turns out I got almost a perfect entry on these. Should have kept holding! More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were amazing. We felt we would be pinned until the release, once we defended the 5178 on the quick backtest it was clear we were headed higher. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the key 5234 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

Breakout in play, can we hold it?

Quick volume check:

Honestly not thrilled with this volume. Post FOMC and on the breakout I want to see higher volume to support this move. This will be key to see tomorrow.

Tomorrow we have unemployment and PMI data along with Fed Member speech.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX level of…

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