Thursday July 18 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX breaks down big time. Where must $SPY reclaim to keep rally alive?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5636 & 5666.

If we lose 5636 I want to be short to 5614 and if we don’t defend there (possible long opportunity) we should flush to 5601 and 5582.

This is what happened. After rejecting 5666 SPX in after hours post-Tuesday’s regular session, we dipped down in early morning hours through 5649 to the all-important must hold level of 5636 SPX. After a brief bounce we failed and flushed all the way near 5601 just prior to the open. We opened at 5610 and rallied to a high of 5622 before selling off all the way to a low of 5584.81, just above the 5882 target support level listed above.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we have had a decent retracement, how much more selling is ahead? Where must we reclaim now to have this be a one day dip and where must we hold to prevent a total flush?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 0DTE 561 calls ran from a low of $58 to $101 for 74% gain.

Unfortunately I traded these after this move for a loss. I was really watching us to reclaim the 5614 level and I impatiently entered on a bounce when we rallied up to a high of 5622. Maybe it’s because I’ve been gone for 2 days and I was ready to get into a trade. I got suckered into this one! More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

A loss of the critical 5636 overnight led to a deep sell. If you trade futures and were awake or had alerts set it would have been a great entry. Then we sold off more during the regular session directly to the 5582 key support target level listed yesterday. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the 5590 key support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 1/5 & all overnight action.

A significant 1.4% dip. Now, can we hold onto the larger range?

Quick volume check:

Decent volume on this sell, as expected.

Tomorrow we have unemployment prior to the open and at least one FOMC member speech during the regular session.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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