Thursday Feb 22 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX chops around, reclaims key level and rallies hard. What is the next target above for $SPY?

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What we’re reading:

In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX level of 4960.

If we fail this level by 4-5 points and cannot defend I want to be short…

If we can dip below, reclaim or not even retest then we may make a stab up to reclaim 4990. We must reclaim here before making a more significant move higher.

In this scenario, you could try the long at 4960 or any of the levels above once we have a multi-level reclaim. Then, target 4990 and scale out, hopefully leaving runners to 5022 or above.

I don’t think we’ll chop all day, even if we chop most of the day the FOMC meeting minutes likely move us significantly in the final hour, it would most likely be between 4960 and 4990.

This is what happened. Although it took much longer than I thought - even after the FOMC meeting minute release, we did get the move higher. The short setup (5 points below 4960) didn’t occur until after the FOMC release and it was short-lived after a final dip and defense to reclaim 4960, and close above 4980.

Now in after hours we are working our way up close to the 5022 level mentioned above.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we’ve defended and had a major move higher into the close and after hours, where do we head from here? What levels will tell us the most recent low is in and we can continue higher?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 2DTE 496 calls ran from a low of $176 to $347 = 97% gain.

I traded these twice (unfortunately before this move) and called out in the chat from $266 to $285 and $246 to $271 (could have had more thought on this last one). Then I was done for the day. Then, after dipping further we rallied back hard and had the move above. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were fine. It was mostly chop drift lower until it wasn’t. But when the key must hold/reclaim levels were behind us it was clear on the direction. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the key 5010 resistance level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

We got the defense and are back in the middle/upper end of the range.

Quick volume check:

Not seeing anything concerning in terms of volume.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

Tomorrow we have unemployment and PMI as well as Fed Member speech during the session.

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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