Thursday August 22 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX low volume chops at top of range. Will Jackson Hole blast us to new ATH's?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5568, 5597 and 5614.

If we dip below and reclaim 5597 I will try the long. Then we can target 5614 and if I wasn’t already long I would try to long that breakout.

Then we should be headed to target 5624, 5635.

This is what happened. Today was very choppy, but the key levels I highlighted proved their worth. After starting the day, we fluctuated between defending 5597 and grappling with the resistance at 5614. Eventually, we broke through and even touched a high of 5632.68, just below the 5635 target.

See how well the levels work?

The levels played out, showing the importance of defending the critical support levels below. The volatility was very much present, and we even pressed against that 5614 resistance multiple times.

Now, after this choppy session, where do we go from here? What levels must we hold to prevent a deeper pullback? Can there be a ‘fire in the hole’ at Jackson Hole and blast us to new all time highs?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 0DTE 561 calls ran from a low of $20 to $103 for 415% gain.

I initially traded short, which ended up being too late to do that. Then I tried a longer dated long, which was too early. Then I finally traded these. I hated the volatility today. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Although today was very choppy, the levels did their job as we bounced between defending 5597 and fighting with 5614 resistance and eventually breaking out to reject 5624 and settle at the 5619 target. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5618 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 1/5 & all overnight action.

As for the overall market context, we pressed and consolidated at the top of this range.

Quick volume check:

Volume remained weak as many traders are in a holding pattern leading up to Friday's Jackson Hole event, where Powell will be speaking. This is certainly the big one to look forward to.

For tomorrow, we have unemployment data and PMI reports scheduled in the morning, which could add further volatility to our trading environment. Keep an eye on how the market reacts to these reports, as they may set the tone ahead of Friday's key economic discussions.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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