Thursday August 1 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX gets the major volatility treatment for FOMC. Now back in range, which way does $SPY break next?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5396, 5431 and 5447.

As it is FOMC, we may be muted after the employment data shakes out and while we await the FOMC statement and presser.

If there’s any day to size down or not trade at all it is tomorrow and CPI days.

There are so many trading sessions, there is no need to get faked out, trapped, and lose big on a volatile day.

If you want to trade, size down, get your best entry, and follow your plan…

Longing a reclaim of any of these would be a possible entry.

Then we can push up through 5447, 5459 and even 5471. Would not be surprised to see even higher all the way up through 5498 where if we can blast through we can absolutely squeeze.

This is what happened. Absolutely Squeeze Indeed. We opened the day very strong with an overnight rally and reclaimed 5492 decisively, low of day (5493.75). Once we defended that level at the open it was clear we were heading higher.

We held 5498 throughout the day and was able to get the squeeze indicated above, ultimately pushed through all targets above, including a high of 5551.51 by the end of the session. The market reaction was bullish, and we managed to slice through the resistance levels I had highlighted.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we are firmly back in the prior range, do we stay here long or do we make another move in rapid succession? What targets and supports below will point the way and what does volume say?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPX 0DTE 5580 calls ran from a low of $55 to $215 for 291% gain.

I had one call scalp with these, which I entered just post-FOMC statement but before the presser. I was fortunate enough to hold runners as we bounced up and the contracts ran over $200, yielding a nice return. Additionally, I called out a significant short trade in the chat, correctly indicating that after Powell's presser, we would likely see a pullback. This prediction came to fruition in a big way! More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Once we reclaimed and defended the 5492 level right at the open, it was a strong indication of the upward movement. The defense of 5498 throughout the day was crucial and allowed us to push higher, ultimately surpassing the 5540 level.

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5549 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 1/5 & all overnight action.

This brought us back firmly into the prior range from 7/19-7/23. Will we consolidate further here or will buyers carry the ball all the way up to the range above?

Quick volume check:

Decent volume, but not much higher than yesterday.

Tomorrow we have unemployment data prior to the open and manufacturing PMI post open. We should keep an eye on any potential market reactions to further economic data and statements from the Fed. There may be continued volatility as traders digest the implications of today’s events.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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