Thursday Apr 18 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX continues the sell. How much more pain for $SPY?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5044 and 5059.

We are pushing from below 5059 in after hours tonight. If we can reclaim there and hold overnight we have a decent shot at a small bounce through 5075.

We just need to hold at 5044. This level was tested all day long as previously noted.

We could dip below and reclaim and that would be another potential long opportunity.

If we lose by 5+, and cannot bounce then the short is on. Don’t chase this, just let it play out and if it cannot reclaim you know where we are headed.

This would be 5012 but only leave runners on for this. Take majority of core position off much higher.

This is what happened. Overnight we had the failed breakdown of 5044 and that launched us all the way up and through 5075 level by the open. High of day (5077.96). Then, it was all selling from there. We fell all the way down to test and lose 5044. This triggered the short all the way down to a low of 5007.25, just below the 5012 level.

We did get a nice 48 point bounce from this low and then chopped into the close.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we defended the 5012/5006 area and bounced hard, where do we head tomorrow? Is more pain ahead or can we finally have a relief rally? What levels must be held now and what targets would allow us to test even higher?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPX 0DTE 5000 puts ran from a low of $90 to $970 = 978% gain.

I traded these after we failed the 5044 level. I waited patiently for a bit of a bounce and sniped a pretty great entry. I was too fast on ‘take profit’ trigger, exiting at $500 after an entry at $320 for 56%. I would have loved to hold for higher but this was not a clean trend down, multiple reversals took place. I did trade 5DTE calls later in the session after we bottomed with a wide stop. Both of these trades called out in chat. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were great. The loss of the key level (5044) gave way to an incredible short. The overnight long after a failed breakdown of the same level would have worked out great if you were awake! We bounced hard off the 5012 target in the regular session. This allowed me to get long and trade both sides today. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5019 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 10/4 & all overnight action.

Lower highs and lower lows. Sound familiar?

Quick volume check:

Volume supports the move, only slightly lower than yesterday.

Tomorrow we have unemployment data and a number of Fed members speaking.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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