Thursday Apr 11 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX sells hard on CPI then volatile chop during regular session. What is the new must hold level for $SPY?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5191 & 5177.

If we lose 5191, we will not want to lose 5177.

If we lose 5177, I will short to the mid 5100’s and hopefully have runners to 5149…

5149 and a bit higher could be long opportunities on defense.

This is what happened. Overnight, we were flat and did not need to test 5191. On CPI data we instantly lost 5191 and 5177 an hour before market open.

This brought us down to almost the 5125 level before turning around and rallying back to the 5149 level.

We opened the regular session at 5167 and quickly fell to 5145 (failed breakdown of the 5149 noted yesterday) before running all the way to 5178.43, just above the 5177 level. This is where we rejected and fell to a low of 5138.7 before chopping and making our way all the way back to 5167-5160 to end the day.

See how well the levels work?

Now that CPI has dropped us down to the lows of this new range (lows we have been fighting back against for 3 out of the last 4 sessions). What are the new must hold levels and what did today’s price action fundamentally do to the structure and chances for new all time highs?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPX 0DTE 5200 calls ran from a low of $170 to $560 = 229% gain.

I traded these as a scalp from $200 to $270 then later scalped a 2DTE 520 call. Then I was done for the day. I was not positioned short in premarket when the CPI move occurred. Had to take what I could on the move back up! More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were incredible. What a volatile day and then chop (but with a good range). Once we lost the key levels in premarket we knew we had deeper to sell. Then we found a temporary bottom and a rally post open. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5147 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 10/4 & all overnight action.

We spiked down and are only a hair from the lows of this range.

Quick volume check:

Higher volume supports this move down. Will be watching volume on a trend up for comparison.

Tomorrow we have PPI and unemployment prior to the open. Three fed member speeches and a 30 year bond auction.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX level of…

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