Monday September 30 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX chop overnight leads to an opening rally and dip remainder of day. Did $SPY reject the highs again?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5737, 5721, and 5758.

It would be very bullish now to not retest or lose 5737. If we dip and defend there, it could be a long entry, and 5721 as well. Then we can push up through 5758 and 5768 first...

If we chop without making much of a move on a Friday, it is likely above 5721 and below 5781 or so.

This is what happened. After some overnight chop, we tested the 5737 level, which was defended effectively. This allowed us to bounce back up to a high of 5763.78, right at the 5763 level. However, we rejected there and fell back down to the 5728 level, ultimately closing the day right at 5737 where we defended all day long.

See how well the levels work?

Now, with a red candle printed on the daily chart after yet another failure to hold near the highs, market sentiment is in question. What does this mean for us moving forward?

More in the trade plan below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

After some overnight chop, we tested the 5737 level, which was defended effectively. This allowed us to bounce back up to a high of 5763.78, right at the 5763 level. Always trust the levels.

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5727 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

With the volume a bit weaker than the previous session, we need to be cautious. If we lose the 5721 level, I want to be short for a potential move to 5709 and 5697. If we experience a proper sell-off, we may see levels down to 5672, 5658, and 5648 come quickly. Conversely, if we reclaim these levels after dipping below them, we may have another opportunity to go long.

Looking ahead to Monday, we have at least one FOMC member speaking before the open, along with PMI and Powell addressing the market during the session. These events could lead to increased volatility, so let's keep an eye on how the market reacts to the incoming data and statements.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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