Monday May 15 2023 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

“If we lose 4118 and cannot reclaim quickly. And if 4109 & 4100 fail then we could have a straight flush to 4092…

The 4109/4118 levels have been well tested and they may not have any more bounce left in them.”

This is where we went, and I should have followed my own advice!

After running up slightly overnight we failed 4141 and multiple levels as the regular session opened.

We then ran the levels and failed 4118/4109 and 4100.

This defended and staged a late day rally back up to hold 4118.

This is the significant downtrend line from the Aug ‘22 and Jan ‘23 highs. We just can’t stray far from this level!

Now that buyers defended yet again where they had to, what does this mean for next week?

More in the trade plan below along with a check on volume.

The 1DTE $SPX 4125 calls ran from afternoon low of $600 to $1220 = 103% gain.

I traded these, and caught a decent chunk of the move from $750 to $1150 = 53% gain. This was my final trade of the day - and by far best. I know what you’re saying, why didn’t you have massive put gains trading the downside? Well, I just didn’t. In the AM I opened calls for a small bounce & defense of the 4130 level about 30 min into the open. This was slightly profitable. Then I had a couple trades during the day that were counter trend and were losers! The last trade of the day finally caught the move I had been looking for earlier, a defense and reclaim of levels. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for Monday.

Levels from last night were great (15 min chart). We had some great movement, just didn’t expect such trend continuation. Also got faked out on the mid-morning pop! Glad to have wrapped the day with a decent trade but have some notes on what to do differently on trends in the future. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH sitting right on the 4116 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for Monday’s session and today’s trade recap.

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