Monday Mar 25 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX chops near highs. Does volume support $SPY rally continuation?

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What we’re reading:

In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX level of 5190.

If we don’t get down there to test then it is very bullish. I would try the long there, or at 5204 or even 5230 now. It is even more bullish if we don’t need to retest any of these.

If we chop, it is likely between 5230 or so and 5255.

This is what happened. We did not need to test 5190. We defended higher levels several times before drifting to 5230 where we got a bounce back to 5246 (high of day) and then fell back down. Low of day was 5229.87, right at the 5230 level above.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we’ve begun to define the next post-breakout range, where do we head from here? Do we have the volume to support a continuation and breakout higher? What are the key levels that we must hold below and targets above that show the way?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 5DTE 523 calls ran from a low of $144 to $204 = 42% gain.

I traded these as called out in the chat from entries at $176 and $152 to $197 for 30%. I had to be extremely patient to enter lower and still did not get the lows. I wasn’t expecting much but since they were longer dated I could be patient with the hold and scale out. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were beautiful. We kept defending at several key levels as we trended lower. I took my shot at the key 5230 defense and failed breakdown. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the key 5226 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

Has not yet retested lows of range.

Quick volume check:

Friday volume even lower. I need to see higher volume and the fact we have not even post FOMC and breakout is still concerning to me. More on this below.

Monday is relatively light in terms of data and scheduled events. We do have a fed member speech during market hours.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX level of…

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