Monday Mar 11 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX rallies to new ATH then sells off hard. Were key levels lost on $SPY and is more pain ahead next week?

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What we’re reading:

In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5145 & 5123.

If we don’t even retest those, it is super bullish and we can reclaim 5160 and be off to the races for 2nd target of 5170.

5181 is a third target...

If we retest 5145/5123 then those are spots to try the long.

This is what happened. Overnight didn’t need to retest 5145, then finally prior to the open on data we had a brief wick down below 5140 and rally hard back through 2nd and 3rd target after the open to a high of 5189.26. Then it was all downhill from there where we lost 5145 and had a failed breakdown of 5123 to close right at 5123.69.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we lost 5145 and are sitting right on 5123, what does this mean heading into next week? What key levels are now must hold and what targets above could get a move up back on track?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 5DTE 518 calls ran from a low of $200 to $331 = 66% gain.

I traded these called out in the chat from $282 to $320 for 14%. This was my only trade. Would have been a great short today - and a nice potential setup for a longer dated long - but was already done for the day when those came about! More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were great. We defended the levels listed above and blasted to new ATH - but when those same levels were lost - it was clear lower was in the cards. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the key 5127 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

New all time highs and then dump to the middle of the prior range.

Quick volume check:

Highest volume on ES for almost a year. Is this a pivot point?

Monday looks really quiet in terms of events and scheduled data. That won’t last though as Tuesday’s CPI & 10 year auction. Wednesday 30 year and Thursday PPI.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

This is not financial advice. This helps keep me honest and is a place for my notes. It is for educational & entertainment purposes for all who choose to subscribe. Not all investments are suitable for all investors.

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