Monday June 3 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX reclaims key level and rallies hard in final hour. Is the selling over for $SPY?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5211 and 5248.

If we lose 5211 then I want to be short for a move through 5188…

If we can continue higher and reclaim 5248 then that puts 5264 and 5275 in play.

This is what happened. Overnight we got close to the 5211 must hold SPX level and defended, running all the way up past 5248.

Then after the opening bounce we continued falling, first losing VWAP on ES and then finally failing 5211 for a quick poke down to 5191 before rallying back to 5211, reclaiming, then tackling VWAP. Once VWAP reclaimed we blasted, running all the way to reclaim 5248 and higher. In the final 20 minutes we flew all the way up to a high of 5280, just above the 5275 target.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we have dipped and defended and are back into a new range, how much more gas is left in the tank? How will we know the bottom is in and what does volume and the key levels from prior weeks tell us?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 4DTE 528 calls ran from a low of $9 to $200 = 2,122% gain.

I still had some runners from my $109 entry yesterday and I exited some in the morning in the $80’s for a loss but was able to de-risk on the morning data pop. I then held onto the remainder as risk free runners. My lean was that we would not lose the 5211 key level, which ended up being wrong. We had a quick spike down but then reclaimed and I thought given these were longer dated and risk free I would let it play out. These reclaimed VWAP and blasted.

Squeeze indeed. These instantly jumped to $100 then $200. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were incredible. First it was all about that 5248 level that couldn’t hold in premarket. Then the loss of 5211 was the bull/bear line. Once we reclaimed 5211 it was clear we had some room to run. Taking out 5248 again was another tell that we could blast. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the 5286 key support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 1/5 & all overnight action.

Dip, defense and back into prior range. Bulls currently have the ball again after a week of bears in control.

Quick volume check:

Big volume day on a Friday. This is the volume you want to see to feel confident in the move that was made.

Monday we have manufacturing PMI in the AM.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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