Monday July 1 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX rallies to new ATH then sells off. What is next move for $SPY?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5461, 5450 and 5504.

We have been chopping for days. If we can continue this late day move (including after hours), then 5504 or higher could be a spot to try a breakout long.

If we dip down to 5461 and defend that could be a spot to try the long as well.

If we continue the move up 5526 is on the table.

If we chop, it will be above 5450 and below 5504.

This is what happened. Overnight, we had the defense of 5488 and a push up that led to a 5504 breakout into the open. Then we quickly blasted to new all time highs at a high of 5523.64, just below the 5526 target. Then it was all downhill from there as we sold off hard, dipping below the 5461 to a low of 5451 right at the 5450 level and then jumping a bit into the close at 5460.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we broke to new all time highs and rejected, where do we head from here? Are we firmly in range or do we need to test lower before the next move? What is the must hold level now to prevent further selling?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPX 0DTE 5470 puts ran from a low of $70 to $2,112 per contract for 2,917% gain.

I traded these called out in the chat not too long after the low of the day hit. I entered at $160 and exited 50% at $310. I then loosely held, scaling out on pops until I had about 10% left. I got some off at $470 and $600. I wish I had held the rest longer as I could have hit that 2k!

No way to know for sure. I did say as early as 11:08 ET when SPX was above 5495:

Well, we closed precisely at 5460.48 according to my ToS screen - was showing 5460.71 earlier. Should have sold some credit spreads!! More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

This week has been rough chop but we finally got a decent move up to new all time highs and a rejection to bring us right on back down. The levels guided this move all day. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the 5474 key support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

A doji candle as we fill out the range and test the bounds higher and lower.

More chop, but as we fill out the range we are nearing the highs.

Quick volume check:

Higher volume especially on a summer Friday. Is this doji candle significant?

Monday we have a couple FOMC member speeches, with one during the trading session. Light day for data releases.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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