Monday Jan 8 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX tries to bounce then chops rest of day. Did $SPY recover critical level headed into next week?

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In yesterday’s letter, (which was the very first free level Friday!), I wrote:

For tomorrow, ultimately I need to see us reclaim the all-important SPX level of 4704.

If we can do this (while defending 4692) then we can target 4714, 4728.

If we lose 4692 then I would want to be short for a move to 4674, 4663 as 2nd target on volume.

The last two here could be potential longs but would want to see a big reaction that bounces us 5-8 points from those levels and we can sustain.

This is where we went. We had already lost the important 4692 prior to the NFP release before the market open. Then, on NFP we dumped precisely to the 4663 second target noted above. Then into and post-opening bell we reclaimed the important 4692 as well as yesterday’s low. Then we ran hard, all the way through 4714 first target to a high of 4721.49 before selling off & chopping.

See how well the levels work?

After fighting with the key 4692 and chopping throughout most of the afternoon we recovered it into the close. Now with a massive doji printed on the daily, where do we go from here?

More in the trade plan below.

The 5DTE $SPY 473 calls ran from a low of $48 to $124 = 158% gain.

I traded these from $61 to $116 for 90% at best sale called out in the chat. I also traded the 0DTE 469 from .15 to .48 but did not call this out in the chat, by the time I had entered and could even get to post about it we had run too far. It was an easy long entry after we sold off. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were great. They showed where we had support and resistance as we broke levels above. Then when critical levels were lost in the afternoon it was clear we were in for chop at the very least. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the 4692 key support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

Defense of the key levels below and bounce, printing a massive doji on the daily. Is this the candle that reverses us and pops us back into the range above?

Quick volume check:

Higher volume on this defensive and choppy day. Still not the massive candle that gives weight to a direction on a clear trend day.

Monday we are light on data/events but do have Fed member speech in the afternoon.

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For Monday, we need to hold the critical SPX level of…

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