Monday Jan 22 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX breaks out to all time highs. Where does $SPY go from here?

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What we’re reading:

In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I will be closely watching the must hold level of SPX 4746-4750.

If we defend 4746 or not even retest, (even more bullish if we don’t even retest the levels above) then we can target 4801. This is the level that is needed for the breakout. Likely we dip at this level and then put another effort to breakthrough. If we can breakthrough and sustain, then we can work our way through 4816 and 4835. New all time highs.

My lean is that this does not occur on opex Friday, but expect that anything can happen.

This is what happened. While my lean was incorrect that this would not occur on opex Friday, but I did note the plan and that anything can happen!

We rallied to a high of 4842.07 just above the 4835 key level.

See how well the levels work?

Now that new all time highs are in, where do we go from here?

More in the trade plan below.

The 0DTE $SPX 4815 calls ran from a low of $145 to $2695 = 1758% gain.

I didn’t trade these but I did trade futures from 4842 up to 4872. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were beautiful. We have been talking about all time highs for some time now and we defended right where we had to and ran the levels to breakout. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the 4836 key support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

Obviously we’ve broken out, new all time highs. Now we must defend any resets. Watch carefully for this move and how we react.

Quick volume check:

Nice increasing volume on the trend up. Let’s see if we can eclipse the volumes of the prior trend down day next week.

Monday we have a very light day in terms of scheduled data releases or events.

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For Monday, I will be closely watching the must hold level of SPX…

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