RESEND Monday Feb 12 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX breaks out again. How much more does $SPY have left before major retest?

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What we’re reading:

In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I will be watching the key SPX level of 4985…

If we hold 4985 or not even retest it would be very bullish and we could breakout 5001 to march on to key target of 5028.

This is what happened. Overnight, we didn’t even need to retest 4985 and instead based the level above+. We started the breakout overnight of 5001 and blasted early AM before regular session to 5025 SPX.

After the peak, we sold off all the way down to open the regular session below 5006. We retested the 5001 breakout level with a dip below and then reclaim (failed breakdown) and then slowly grinned out way all day to a high of 5030 just above the 5028 key target above.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we broke out yet again, how much is left in this leg of the rally and what will the first major retest look like?

More in the trade plan below.

All of you keep me sane and when I feel like the work managing all of this is too much I get some words of appreciation and it helps fuel me to keep this up and reminds me of the reason I started in the first place!

The $SPX 0DTE 4030 calls ran from a low of $55 to $500 = 809% gain.

I traded these a couple times. Originally from $150 to $180, then from $120 to $215 for 79% gain. I probably would have kept working a position but I had to be somewhere so I exited fully for profit. I even said, I think they probably end up going to $3 and $5:

I almost reentered these when I saw $55-$60 hit but decided not to. Really wish I did! I traded these contracts after longing ES last night from entries at (ES Quotes) 5015.50 and 5013.25 to sells in 5019-5022 and final sell 5040.75 prior to the market open. All of these trades above were called out in the chat. At $50 per point this 27.5 range nets $1,375 profit per contract. My one regret other than not re-entering the 5030 calls near the lows, was not re-entering ES long at the low of the day just after the open. The failed breakdown of 5001 SPX was a great setup.

I just was mentally in the mindset of trading small/not trading after the overnight move. Never a bad thing to lock in gains and not risk (so they can’t take them away from you!). More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were incredible. Following the trade plan, we knew where we were headed and the failed breakdown of 5001 SPX was a key trigger after the open. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the key 5021 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

We broke out…again! All we needed this time was a 1 day consolidation (Thursday).

Quick volume check:

This was a Friday, I don’t think this was a low-volume test which I would be concerned about but we’ll see what comes next week.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

Monday is relatively light for scheduled events and data but there are two Fed Member speeches that take place during the regular session.

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For Monday, I will be watching the key SPX level of…

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