Monday August 5 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX continues selling off. How much more pain for $SPY?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5428, 5407 and 5385. If we don’t even need to test 5407 that would be very bullish. I am even willing to entertain the long at 5385 given that we dip and defend. Below there though I want to be short. We would then target 5372, 5360. Even 5348, 5337 and 5324 if we really sell off again.

This is what happened. The market opened with a bit of optimism, and we held the crucial 5385 level until the employment data in the premarket, after which we fell hard. I waited patiently for an entry as I was looking to see if we could reclaim 5385. Ultimately we could not, leading to a sharp decline.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we have sold off again in back to back sessions, where do we go from here? Where must we hold now and what levels above must be reclaimed to have us feel good about longs? What does volume tell us?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 5DTE 535 calls ran from a low of $355 to $492 for 39% gain.

I missed the opportunity to short on the loss of 5337, but I did manage to enter a long position at the very bottom mid-morning. I traded the option above from $400 to $470, then holding runners into the weekend. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

The levels played out well, as we initially held the 5385 SPX level until the data release, but then lost it dramatically. After a brief bounce, we could not reclaim the higher levels and fell through 5337, ultimately reaching a low of 5302.03, which was below my 5311 target. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5324 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 1/5 & all overnight action.

On the daily chart, we dipped to levels not seen since early June but managed to bounce off a major trend line dating back to December of '22.

Quick volume check:

By far, this was the highest volume session of the year. The question now is whether this marks capitulation or the start of something more significant.

Looking ahead, Monday brings services PMI after the open, along with at least one FOMC member speech post-close. Exciting events to follow, and we will need to keep an eye on how the market reacts to these developments.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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