Monday August 12 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX defends where it needs to and reclaimed strong resistance. Is $SPY now out of the woods?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5316, 5275 & 5348.

If we hold 5316 overnight and in the AM or a quick dip and reclaim then we can continue to push up towards 5348 directly.

If we get down to 5302, 5288 - 5275 at the very lowest and defend then we can take a longer trip up to through 5316 again and through 5348.

In these scenarios, if we get to 5348 we may reject initially but if we can blast through then will target 5358…

This is what happened. The market opened with strength, pushing through the levels I highlighted. After holding 5316, we saw a quick dip to 5302, which was defended well. This set us up for a rally that pushed through 5348, with a high of 5358.67 achieved by the end of the session. The resilience shown at the key levels was a clear signal of the bullish momentum.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we have reclaimed these levels and made significant progress, what are we watching for moving forward? What supports must we maintain to avoid a pullback?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 3DTE 534 calls ran from a low of $125 to $304 = 143% gain.

I traded this contract. The timing was perfect as we capitalized on the bullish sentiment following the successful reclaim of critical levels. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

The levels played out beautifully today. After the failed breakdowns at 5302 and 5316, and later at 5330, it was clear that the market wanted to move higher. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5337 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 1/5 & all overnight action.

On the daily, we managed to hold where we needed and make up some ground by the close despite the very light Friday volume.

Quick volume check:

As indicated - one of the lower volume days - summer Friday!

Looking ahead to Monday, there isn’t much in terms of data or scheduled events, but keep an eye on inflation expectations from the Cleveland Fed, which could provide some interesting insights. Also always watch Iran, Israel and US election news.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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