Monday Apr 22 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX continues the sell off. Where is support for $SPY now?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5000 and 5012.

Fail 5000 and I want to be short. We likely see 4988, 4967. Even 4948 is a possible stretch target.

This is what happened. Overnight we had a news driven sell off that took us all the way down to the 4927 level on SPX before we bounced.

And bounce we did. We ran it all the way up through 5000 and 5012 before the open.

After a bounce after the open we sold off pretty good and fought with the 5000 key SPX level before losing vwap and falling down through 4988 and 4967 targets.

We then bounced and tried to reclaim 5000 but rejected right off it precisely at 4999.10.

See how well the levels work?

We then continued the sell and brought it down to a day’s low of 4953.56, just above the 4948 level.

Now that we’ve continued the sell, how much more is left? What levels must we hold now to prevent a deeper flush and what targets below and above give us direction on the remainder of April?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 5DTE 495 puts ran from a low of $190 to $411 = 116% gain.

I traded these after a slight profit/scratch trade on long dated calls from the then lows of the day. I caught 1 dollar of this move from around 2-3. I definitely sold too early as after a dip we rallied all the way past 4. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were great. Once we failed 5000 it was clear on direction. I missed a good entry so I tried trading the long from the lows. This worked briefly but ultimately we continued the selling. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 4965 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 10/4 & all overnight action.

Lower highs and lower lows…again again. Sound familiar? While we never got quite as low as we did overnight during the day, there’s always Sunday or Monday…

Quick volume check:

Strong volume supports this move down. I was looking for weakening selling but the news driven uncertainty has killed that for now.

Monday we have very light day in terms of data releases or scheduled events.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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