Monday Apr 15 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX breaks down. How much more pain and where could we target on the downside?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

If we test 5151, and ultimately cannot hold or reclaim, then I would want to be short for the move through 5141 on the core position.

Runners could be held for move to 5120 and even 5097.

This is what happened. After a hold of 5195 overnight, we dropped to a failed breakdown of the 5173-5178 range 3 hours prior to the open.

We opened between 5160 and 5175 and chopped around in here before dropping to lose the 5178 and 5161 holds. Then we tested and lost 5151.

This was the trigger to know a lot more downside was incoming. We failed 5141, 5120 and the low of the day (5107.94) was within 10 points of the final downside target level.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we’ve dropped below the range we have been fighting to hold all week, how much downside is left? What are the key downside targets now and what level do we need to reclaim above to be in the clear?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 0DTE 510 puts ran from a low of $20 to $163 = 715% gain.

I traded these after having a losing long trade not long after the open. I thought the dip and defense in premarket was a precursor that we would defend and hold the levels reclaimed. I was wrong and took a loss. Then I traded these and more than made up for it. Traded initially from $40 to $85, then left runners and added at $35 and sold all at $110. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were amazing. How many volatile massive range days can we have in a week? Once we lost 5151 and could not reclaim we knew where we were headed. All down from there. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5119 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 10/4 & all overnight action.

Another lower low and a drop into the range below. We should have some nice price discovery next week.

Quick volume check:

Stronger volume supports this move down.

Monday we have retail sales prior to the open and a fed member speech during the trading session (another one post session).

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For Monday, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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