Friday May 24 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX rejects the initial breakout try. Where does $SPY need to target & must hold now to try again?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5284 and 5331.

If we hold this defense off today’s lows and takeout 5331 it is off to the races. Reject the highs and come right back down.

We could fill out this range for quite some time, but my lean is that we have chopped enough and we are likely getting close to breaking out or down.

If we dip, I would entertain the long at 5300.

If we hit 5284 and defend that is another good long opportunity. If we fail by 5+ points and cannot reclaim then it’s short through to 5267 and 5256.

If we takeout 5331, it is ‘off to the races’ as I said earlier. We should breakout higher to 5348.

This is what happened. Overnight we took out 5331 and it was off to the races, hitting a high of 5348 SPX (level above) before the open and then selling off an hour prior. Out of the open, we continued the sell losing 5331 and eventually coming down to test 5300. After a brief bounce, we sold further losing the key 5284 level and selling all the way to a low of 5256.93, just above the 5256 level above..

See how well the levels work?

Now that we’ve tried the breakout and rejected, and fallen all the way out of the bottom of this range, where do we head from here? What key levels must hold for us to have a shot at another breakout try? If we need to sell further, what key level will tell us we are headed lower?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 6DTE 533 calls ran from a low of $92 to $152 = 65% gains.

I traded these from $124 to $148 as called out in the chat. I unfortunately didn’t get the entry down at $100 or less. But when SPX was 5300-5308 it was worth a shot at the long. These ran and I scaled out but was eventually stopped out for profit on the rest at $135 as I kept positioning stops. We now know we lost the critical 5284 level and sold off further. I didn’t take that short entry because I already had this trade. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were great. The breakout of 5331 let us know we were going higher overnight. A long futures trade would have worked very well here. Then prior to the open at the highs I would have longed if we could have held the 5331 - that did not happen so I longed almost 30 points lower. That led to a nice bounce but ultimately failing the critical 5284 told us we were going lower and lower we did, all the way to 5256 - another key level. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5272 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 10/4 & all overnight action.

An outside day, a higher high and lower low - an attempt at a breakout and then a breakdown!

Quick volume check:

Higher volume on this volatility move. Expect less volume tomorrow.

Tomorrow we have consumer sentiment and inflation data along with FOMC member speech during the session.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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