Friday August 23 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX finally loses multiple supports. Will Jackson Hole break us down even further or break us out to fresh ATH?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5613, 5600 & 5587.

If we lose 5587 I want to be short for a ride to 5577, 5559.

This is what happened. The levels played out tremendously as we opened strong but struggled to break out from the 5637 SPX level. Instead, we saw a significant drop that led us down through the support levels I mentioned, ultimately hitting a low of 5560.95, right at the critical support of 5559. The inability to hold onto the upper levels was a clear signal of weakness in the market.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we are firmly at the lows of the current range, on the eve of Jackson Hole, where do we go from here? What levels must we hold to prevent further declines? What does the volume indicate about market sentiment?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 1DTE 561 puts ran from a low of $168 to $619 for 268% gain.

I traded this contract, which ran from a low of I entered not too far off the highs and was able to scale out, set stops, and take profits as needed. The entry signal was critical, and I’ll provide more details in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

The levels played out tremendously as we were unable to breakout from the 5637 SPX level and instead fell to lose multiple levels all the way to a low of 5560.95, right at the 5559 support. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5573 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 1/5 & all overnight action.

This sharp decline crushed the daily candle and places us firmly at the lows of the current range.

Quick volume check:

Volume was much higher than the previous four sessions, but overall it remains depressed as traders seem to be in a holding pattern.

All eyes are on the Jackson Hole speech tomorrow morning, which could dictate market direction. Additionally, we have more FOMC members speaking in the afternoon, so be prepared for potential volatility as these events unfold.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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