Friday August 16 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX rallies hard. When is first major struggle for $SPY?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5464, 5437 & 5419.

Ultimately we need to breakout of the 5464, which we rejected today.

If we do this directly without retesting 5437 that is incredibly bullish.

If we dip and defend at 5437 that is a long opportunity. 5464 breakout is another but higher risk.

Then we can target 5474, 5488. Even 5504 and 5517 are there if volume comes in.

This is what happened. The market opened strong, quickly breaking out of the 5464 level even before the session started. This was a clear signal that we were headed higher. We easily took out the next targets of 5504 and 5517, resulting in a robust 1.6% squeeze, culminating in a high of 5546.23 for the day. The defense of the levels I previously mentioned was critical, and we executed it flawlessly.

See how well the levels work?

The breakout above 5464 without even retesting 5437 was indeed a bullish sign.

Now, as we approach the highs of late July, where do we go from here? What support levels do we maintain, and what targets should we look for to confirm continued upward momentum?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 1DTE 551 call ran from a low of $137 to $333, 143% gain.

I traded these and was able to scale out and allow the runners to work, letting my stop-loss and take-profit orders manage the rest of the position. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Overall, the levels played out excellently, confirming our bullish outlook. As we had taken care of breaking out of 5464 even prior to the open, the choice was clear we were going higher. We quickly took out 5504 and 5517 and it was off to the races for a nice 1.6% squeeze. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5546 support level. What does this mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 1/5 & all overnight action.

We rallied right back to the highs of late July.

Quick volume check:

We had stronger volume today, but not as much as one might expect given the move.

Tomorrow is set to be relatively light in terms of scheduled events, but we will still have preliminary sentiment and inflation expectations reports, along with an FOMC member speaking during the trading session. Keep an eye on these developments, as they could bring further volatility and trading opportunities.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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