Friday Aug 25 2023 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX gives back yesterday's rally and more ahead of Jackson Hole. Where are we headed?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

“For tomorrow, we will not want to lose 4429 to keep the strong trend up in play.

If we lose 4429 then we likely see 4423 and 4416. 4416 and 4410 would be spots to try the long again.

If we lose 4410 then we probably will head towards 4392 through 4399. That is another spot to try the long. Safer to let it have a failed breakdown and then reclaim 4410.”

This is exactly what happened. We rallied in yesterday’s session and then ran aggressively AH after NVDA earnings. We even approached 4474 in early AM hours. Then we sold off breaking the 4464 and 4457 levels.

From the open, after a brief rally we lost multiple levels and after a short lived run from 4399 to 4410 we lost all levels down to 4392.

In the final 30 minutes of the session we finally lost 4392 after looking like it would hold. This of course led to further selling.

This was a violent rejection of yesterday’s rally and on strong volume. We alerted that yesterday’s volume was potentially a warning sign.

See how well the levels work?

Now that we are right back to levels from 3 sessions ago, with Jackson Hole speech up tomorrow where are we headed?

More in the trade plan below.

The 4DTE $SPY 440 calls ran from an AM low of $228 to $300 = 32% gain.

I took this trade from $247 to $286 at best sale 16%. This was my second trade of the day and my only winner. I had to exit my first try at the long because I didn’t like the price action. I was out running errands for the best trade which was the open kiss of vwap and then all selling. Additional information on why I took the trade and the entry in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from last night were fantastic. They showed where we would have brief pausing in the selling and where we might get a reversal. The 4399 and 4392 levels were very strong until they finally gave. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right on the 4379 key support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

Learn the system to make 1-3 low risk, high reward trades per day using SPY/SPX options.

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