Friday Apr 5 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX overnight and AM rally leads to violent selloff. What are the critical levels for $SPY?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 5208 & 5182.

Best case from a long perspective is that we defend 5208 on any retest.

If we defend 5208 or 5182 or higher then we can long up the levels. First need to reclaim 5218 and then breakout at 5235. 5253 is a second target…

If we fail and retest 5182 I am very cautious of longs and would short on a loss of 5182.

Then we should see 5164 as first target where the long could be attempted on defense.

5149 is next if that doesn’t defend.

This is what happened. A violent see-saw day. After rallying 60+ points from the lows yesterday we hit the second target of 5253 and then sold off violently in the afternoon.

Not only did we lose 5208 and 5182 but fell to a low of 5146, just below the 2nd downside target.

See how well the levels work?

This was a swing of 110+ points and fortunes were made on the violent move down.

For example, the 5190 0DTE SPX put hit a low of $5 dollars per contract prior to the sell off.

It would cash settle at the close at almost $4,300 per contract and had hit a day high of $4,370. This is a gain of 87,300%.

After breaking down the critical 5182 level and falling into the prior range, where do we go from here? What critical levels keep us from falling even deeper and what targets above make longs safe(r)?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 0DTE 513 puts ran from a low of $1 to $75 = 7,400% gain.

I traded these as called out in the chat with a scalp from $18 to $42. I also traded calls (1DTE SPY 523C) with detailed entry ($162) and exits ($215) as posted in the chat in the morning. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were amazing. The key areas to hold were great overnight and green light to long in the AM. Then, failure of the noted supports led to a nice short in the afternoon. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5150 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 6/29 & all overnight action.

The sell this afternoon was structural. Back in the prior range.

Quick volume check:

Higher volume supports the move.

Tomorrow we have more unemployment data as well as a few Fed Member speeches.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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