Friday Apr 19 2024 SPY SPX ES Actionable Levels

$SPX is rangebound and chops only to end flat. What's next for $SPY & where must it defend now?

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In yesterday’s letter, I wrote:

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of 4998 and 5045.

We need to hold 4998 to prevent another deeper flush. In this case we defend, dip below and rally or not even retest (this one is the best) and we can rally all the way through 5033 and 5045 first and second targets.

5058 is up next…

This is what happened. Overnight we slowly ran all the way up to the second target of 5045 (listed above) and then chopped into the open. At the open we dipped pretty good to test 5013 and then ran all the way up through 2nd target 5045 to 5056.66, only 1.34 away from the 3rd target listed above of 5058.

See how well the levels work?

Then we dipped hard to a low of the day 5001.89 (only slightly above the 4998 level listed above.

Now that we’ve bounced off this level only to end flat on the day, what does that say about direction for tomorrow? What does volume tell us and what targets above would indicate longs are safe again?

More in the trade plan below.

The $SPY 6DTE 502 calls ran from a low of $266 to $349 = 31% gain.

I traded these for this move near the end of the day. I did not take the opening short as that was in my first 15 minute (no trade) window. Then, I missed longing the bottom as that was still just before my 15 min window expired. I was a bit upset that I missed the long as that was really the move I was waiting for. I let that move play out and the subsequent fall to the lows of the day and then entered these. 6DTE quite a bit safer and I was able to start with a small position and then add to it as we dipped a little more. I actually added some at 2.68, just off the low of the day for this contract (and didn’t notice that until just now). Best was 2.68 to 3.47 for almost 30%. This was not a huge mover, but it was consistent and a relatively safe trade given the chop. More in the trade recap below.

Below, we’ll cover the actionable levels, how I played them today and what they mean for the next session.

Levels from the prior letter were fine. It was again chop within a huge range. No follow through and we still are suck within the same relative range as yesterday. The defense of the key supports was important though for me to long against.. Always trust the levels!

Now we are sitting in AH right above the key 5007 support level. What does this all mean and where do we go from here? Read below for my trade plan which includes actionable support & resistance levels, outlook for the next session and today’s trade recap.

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Trading Plan

Here is a current check of the daily:

This includes all the way back to 10/4 & all overnight action.

Lower highs and lower lows…again. Sound familiar?

Quick volume check:

It would appear that volume on down days has peaked for now and we have temporarily reached equilibrium. Will be watching for increasing volume on a trend up day for potential longer term reversal signal.

Tomorrow we have very light day in terms of data releases or scheduled events.

I am receiving some great questions from beginners. This is helping me develop guides for this group as well as the course. More to come but I’ve created a separate channel in the discord just so you can not be shy about bringing those questions to the group. No question is dumb, we grow stronger together!

In fact, I’ve created this single resource as a guide. It is a living document and we will continue updating it. You must be logged into the site to read it:

https://letter.spyoptionsactionablelevels.com/p/strategy-guide-the-basics

As readers know trading after a massive move in either direction is risky.

Trying to predict when trend will break is a fool’s game because the trend can be stronger than you ever realize.

Going with the trend is hard because it has already run so far (or dropped) and move may be close to over.

All you can do is pick your entries carefully and with proper position sizing. Trading out 1-3 DTE or further also helps soften the blow.

Yes it will decrease the amount of profit but will greatly help keep you in a trade long enough to see return.

For tomorrow, I am closely watching the key SPX levels of…

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